Long-Yield Repricing
Long-yield repricing72
Higher long yields, rising real yields, higher term premium, and less dovish Fed pricing are bearish TLT.
Daily stance / 2026-06-01
Wait / No New Position
Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.
Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67
30Y / 20Y / 10Y
2025-09-10%4.54 low / %5.18 high2026-05-29
2025-09-10%4.52 low / %5.19 high2026-05-29
2025-09-10%3.97 low / %4.67 high2026-05-29
Yield Decomposition
10Y nominal yield+5 bps
Real yield contribution+13 bps
Breakeven contribution-8 bps
Interpretation: mostly real-yield driven, bearish TLT.
30-Year Treasury Yield4.9920D +0.01 / Bearish TLT
20-Year Treasury Yield4.9820D +0.01 / Bearish TLT
10-Year Treasury Yield4.4520D +0.05 / Bearish TLT
30-Year TIPS Real Yield2.7120D +0.00 / Mixed/neutral
10-Year TIPS Real Yield2.0720D +0.13 / Bearish TLT
10-Year Breakeven Inflation2.420D -0.08 / Bullish TLT
5-Year Breakeven Inflation2.5420D -0.15 / Bullish TLT
10Y Minus 2Y Curve0.4220D -0.09 / Bullish TLT
10Y Minus 3M Curve0.6920D -0.02 / Bullish TLT
10-Year Term Premium0.828520D +0.18 / Bearish TLT