Inflation Pressure Score
Inflation pressure64
Rising energy, breakevens, wages, expectations, and supply-chain pressure are bearish TLT because they can keep long yields repricing higher.
Daily stance / 2026-06-01
Wait / No New Position
Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.
Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67
Breakevens
2025-09-11%2.22 low / %2.72 high2026-06-01
2025-09-11%2.22 low / %2.50 high2026-06-01
Inflation Cockpit
CPI All Items332.40720D +18.84 / Bearish TLT
Core CPI335.42320D +16.48 / Bearish TLT
PCE Price Index130.90220D +7.01 / Bearish TLT
Core PCE Price Index129.6320D +6.50 / Bearish TLT
5-Year Breakeven Inflation2.5420D -0.15 / Bullish TLT
10-Year Breakeven Inflation2.420D -0.08 / Bullish TLT
5Y5Y Forward Inflation Expectation2.2620D -0.01 / Bullish TLT
Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations4.720D +1.90 / Bearish TLT
Global Supply Chain Pressure IndexN/AData unavailable