SnowblindTLT Macro

Daily stance / 2026-06-01

Wait / No New Position

Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.

Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67

TLT Price and Trend

TLT adjusted close fallback$85.47
TLT adjusted close fallback latest $85.47
2025-09-12$83.02 low / $89.83 high2026-06-01
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF85.4720D -0.14 / Bearish TLT

Scenario Calculator

Approximation only: price change percent = -effective duration x yield change decimal.

TLT / 30Y Inverse Overlay Inputs

30Y yield%4.99
30Y yield latest %4.99
2025-09-10%4.54 low / %5.18 high2026-05-29

Technical Read

Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.

  • TLT uptrend score: 26.8
  • TLT downtrend score: 73.2
  • Invalidation: A decisive break in either direction: 30Y yield breakout with TLT downside confirmation, or lower-high yields with TLT reclaiming its 50-day SMA.