Fed Policy Pressure
Fed pressure56
Without a configured FedWatch feed, the dashboard uses effective fed funds and 2Y yield repricing as a rules-based proxy.
Daily stance / 2026-06-01
Wait / No New Position
Wait because the macro stack is mixed: bearish inflation/yield forces and bullish duration offsets are not aligned enough for a high-conviction action signal.
Net-27
Confidence51%
Bullish40
Bearish67
Fed Funds and 2Y Proxy
2025-12-01%3.62 low / %3.89 high2026-05-29
2Y Treasury yieldData unavailable
Policy Watch
| Date | Event | Category | Importance | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial claimsFRED / Department of Labor | Labor | High | Growth and labor cooling input. | |
| FOMC watch windowFederal Reserve | Fed | High | Use official FOMC calendar for exact meeting dates. | |
| PCE inflationBEA | Inflation | High | Core TLT macro trigger. | |
| Payrolls and unemploymentBLS | Labor | High | Fed path and growth-risk input. | |
| CPI inflationBLS | Inflation | High | Inflation impulse confirmation. |